Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 55.3%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Aho 54.9% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 60.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 68.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Larkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Larkin
Aho
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Larkin
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
54.5% (870)
-1.9%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
62.4% (266)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
37.1% (62)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Larkin
Aho
Home
54.7% (783)
53.9% (603)
Away
54.3% (816)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Larkin
Aho
P1
55.9%
54.1%
P2
56.1%
55.0%
P3
51.1%
57.4%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |