Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Aho 53.8% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 71.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 58.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Larkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Larkin
Aho
Last 9: Larkin 4-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Larkin
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
51.2% (785)
+4.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
63.8% (213)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
57.9% (57)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Larkin
Aho
Home
56.0% (654)
54.9% (548)
Away
54.8% (639)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Larkin
Aho
P1
54.4%
52.8%
P2
55.9%
58.9%
P3
55.2%
50.6%
OT
64.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 10:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:42 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |