Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Aho 50.0% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 67.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 65.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Larkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Larkin
Aho
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
7
Larkin
Aho
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
49.9% (851)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
53.5% (144)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
43.3% (60)
+4.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Larkin
Aho
Home
52.4% (647)
53.2% (554)
Away
52.7% (643)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Larkin
Aho
P1
52.2%
49.1%
P2
53.1%
50.8%
P3
51.7%
49.7%
OT
61.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
55.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |