Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 57 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Aho 51.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 70-54 in 124 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 70.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 50.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 60.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Larkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
54
-
70
(124 meetings)
54
70
Larkin
Aho
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
19
38
Larkin
Aho
57 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
20
15
Larkin
Aho
35 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
15
17
Larkin
Aho
32 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
50.1% (6,619)
+1.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
58.9% (1,310)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
46.3% (464)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Larkin
Aho
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Larkin
Aho
P1
52.7%
51.1%
P2
53.1%
52.0%
P3
52.1%
50.7%
OT
58.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |