Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 55.5%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 76.7%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 61.0%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Larkin
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Jarvis
Last 5: Larkin 2-3 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Jarvis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
3
Larkin
Jarvis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
46.2% (171)
+9.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
51.9% (54)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
39.4% (127)
+6.8%
On even strength, Larkin has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jarvis
Home
56.0% (654)
46.1% (204)
Away
54.8% (639)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Larkin
Jarvis
P1
54.4%
42.5%
P2
55.9%
42.9%
P3
55.2%
48.7%
Final 5 min
53.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |