Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Jarvis 42.6% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 53.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Larkin
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Jarvis
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Jarvis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
3
Larkin
Jarvis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
42.0% (352)
+9.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
43.7% (119)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
38.2% (157)
+12.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jarvis
Home
54.0% (6,238)
43.8% (336)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
38.7% (292)
By Period
Larkin
Jarvis
P1
52.7%
39.7%
P2
53.1%
39.5%
P3
52.1%
46.1%
OT
58.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |