Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Thompson 43.8% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 95.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 88.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Larkin
Thompson
Last 6: Larkin 5-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
43.3% (735)
+10.3%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
50.0% (26)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
36.5% (52)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
56.6% (700)
44.5% (407)
Away
52.1% (655)
41.6% (406)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
55.4%
44.4%
P2
54.7%
44.8%
P3
52.7%
40.2%
OT
59.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.0%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 04:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |