Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Thompson 43.7% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 52.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 52.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Larkin
Thompson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Thompson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
41.9% (597)
+10.7%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
50.5% (95)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
25.0% (12)
+30.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
54.7% (783)
47.1% (367)
Away
54.3% (816)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
55.9%
44.2%
P2
56.1%
41.6%
P3
51.1%
42.9%
OT
66.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 15:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 04:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |