Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Thompson 42.8% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 48-21 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 97.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 97.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 94.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 96.5%
96.5%
3.5%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
21
(69 meetings)
48
21
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
19
10
Larkin
Thompson
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
5
Larkin
Thompson
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
6
Larkin
Thompson
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
42.9% (3,521)
+8.8%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
46.8% (372)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
33.6% (265)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
54.0% (6,238)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
52.7%
44.5%
P2
53.1%
43.6%
P3
52.1%
40.2%
OT
58.4%
36.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |