Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Thompson 45.3% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 81.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 91.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Thompson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
44.9% (642)
+6.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
47.9% (94)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
33.3% (33)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
52.4% (647)
46.0% (391)
Away
52.7% (643)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
52.2%
48.1%
P2
53.1%
44.9%
P3
51.7%
41.2%
OT
61.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |