Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 59.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Larkin
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Larkin
Karlsson
Last 8: Larkin 3-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Larkin
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
58.5% (135)
-6.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
80.0% (5)
-21.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
44.4% (18)
+3.8%
On power play, Karlsson has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Larkin
Karlsson
Home
52.4% (647)
63.7% (91)
Away
52.7% (643)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Larkin
Karlsson
P1
52.2%
54.4%
P2
53.1%
66.7%
P3
51.7%
51.9%
OT
61.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:47 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:28 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:38 | Defensive | William Karlsson |