Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 54.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 51.2%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 51.4%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Larkin
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Karlsson
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Larkin
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
58.6% (597)
-6.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
57.9% (57)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
51.9% (52)
+4.0%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Larkin
Karlsson
Home
54.7% (783)
59.6% (344)
Away
54.3% (816)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Larkin
Karlsson
P1
55.9%
53.1%
P2
56.1%
62.1%
P3
51.1%
60.1%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |