Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 55.3%). Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 53.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Larkin
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Larkin
Karlsson
Last 7: Larkin 2-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
3
Larkin
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Larkin
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
55.3% (897)
-1.7%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
61.1% (113)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
50.8% (132)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Larkin
Karlsson
Home
56.6% (700)
58.6% (560)
Away
52.1% (655)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Larkin
Karlsson
P1
55.4%
55.8%
P2
54.7%
55.6%
P3
52.7%
55.7%
OT
59.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 16:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 12:58 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 08:35 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 14:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | William Karlsson |