Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Gourde 45.6% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 72.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Larkin
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (773)
47.1% (463)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.6% (220)
36.4% (11)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (146)
29.9% (67)
+17.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (762).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
51.9% (615)
42.3% (215)
Away
54.2% (524)
46.3% (326)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
52.3%
44.8%
P2
53.2%
49.1%
P3
52.6%
40.1%
OT
63.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.9%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |