Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Gourde 46.0% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 72.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Larkin
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
47.2% (654)
+4.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
45.0% (20)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
32.2% (87)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
52.4% (647)
44.1% (322)
Away
52.7% (643)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
52.2%
42.4%
P2
53.1%
49.8%
P3
51.7%
44.3%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |