Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Gourde 49.7% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 64.5%
Defensive zone
Gourde 70.9%
Neutral zone
Gourde 70.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Larkin
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
51.2% (469)
+1.4%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
42.9% (21)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
37.5% (48)
+18.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
54.7% (783)
47.8% (301)
Away
54.3% (816)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
55.9%
47.3%
P2
56.1%
53.4%
P3
51.1%
48.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%