Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 22 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Gourde 48.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 37-27 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 71.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 69.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 67.1%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
37
(64 meetings)
27
37
Larkin
Gourde
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
11
14
Larkin
Gourde
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
9
13
Larkin
Gourde
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
7
10
Larkin
Gourde
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.4% (4,954)
+3.3%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
57.4% (376)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
39.9% (554)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
52.7%
49.9%
P2
53.1%
47.4%
P3
52.1%
47.5%
OT
58.4%
37.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:38 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:49 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |