Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Gourde 49.7% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 76.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 57.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Larkin
Gourde
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
49.1% (847)
+4.5%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
79.5% (44)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
39.5% (81)
+9.2%
On power play, Gourde has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
56.6% (700)
50.1% (491)
Away
52.1% (655)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
55.4%
54.7%
P2
54.7%
45.0%
P3
52.7%
49.4%
OT
59.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:49 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |