Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Gourde 48.0% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 58.8%
Defensive zone
Gourde 61.8%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Larkin
Gourde
Last 8: Larkin 4-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Larkin
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
48.0% (914)
+7.9%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
54.2% (48)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
43.9% (123)
+2.3%
On even strength, Larkin has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
56.0% (654)
50.2% (512)
Away
54.8% (639)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
54.4%
50.0%
P2
55.9%
45.3%
P3
55.2%
48.6%
OT
64.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:38 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |