Dylan Larkin vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Girgensons 45.8% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.5%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 66.3%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 51.6%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Larkin
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Larkin
Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Larkin
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
43.2% (146)
+8.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
50.0% (2)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
44.8% (29)
+3.4%
On even strength, Larkin has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Girgensons is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Larkin
Girgensons
Home
52.4% (647)
40.3% (72)
Away
52.7% (643)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Larkin
Girgensons
P1
52.2%
43.8%
P2
53.1%
44.6%
P3
51.7%
42.5%
Final 5 min
55.2%
34.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |