Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.4%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Strome 48.5% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nelson
Strome
Last 6: Nelson 5-1 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Strome
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Strome
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
47.3% (829)
+0.1%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
69.0% (58)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
20.0% (10)
+22.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (578).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
51.0% (641)
49.8% (468)
Away
44.1% (605)
46.9% (429)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
48.2%
46.1%
P2
48.1%
52.9%
P3
46.9%
46.3%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.6%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 03:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2019 | 3 | 13:41 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 3, 2019 | 1 | 08:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2019 | 1 | 03:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |