Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.8% vs 54.2%). Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 29 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.8% vs Duchene 54.1% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 35-32 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.7%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 53.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 55.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Lindholm
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
32
(67 meetings)
35
32
Lindholm
Duchene
Last 10: Lindholm 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
11
11
Lindholm
Duchene
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
18
11
Lindholm
Duchene
29 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
10
Lindholm
Duchene
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,505)
53.9% (10,396)
-0.1%
Power Play
59.3% (1,734)
56.9% (1,665)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (1,610)
49.1% (468)
-1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,111).
Lindholm shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Duchene
Home
54.1% (5,943)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
53.6% (5,906)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Lindholm
Duchene
P1
54.1%
54.5%
P2
54.5%
54.5%
P3
53.0%
53.4%
OT
53.6%
56.3%
Final 5 min
52.6%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
53.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 15:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 05:53 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3 | 03:13 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 16:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 26, 2022 | OT | 01:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |