Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 55.2%). Lindholm wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.8% vs O'Reilly 54.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 56.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (555)
54.6% (669)
-1.1%
Power Play
61.1% (113)
57.3% (171)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (61)
56.3% (87)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lindholm is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (521).
Lindholm shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (397).
Home / Away
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Home
55.5% (431)
56.4% (486)
Away
52.7% (298)
54.0% (441)
By Period
Lindholm
O'Reilly
P1
52.3%
55.3%
P2
54.8%
53.4%
P3
56.3%
56.9%
OT
0.0%
55.0%
Final 5 min
58.0%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.3%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |