Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.8%). Look for Lindholm on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lindholm wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 56.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.8%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 56.2%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Last 8: Lindholm 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lindholm
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (1,124)
56.1% (690)
+1.6%
Power Play
52.9% (155)
64.6% (96)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (259)
45.9% (109)
+2.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lindholm is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,140).
Lindholm shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Home
55.7% (760)
58.3% (408)
Away
55.8% (778)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Lindholm
O'Reilly
P1
53.7%
57.7%
P2
58.3%
54.8%
P3
55.1%
55.2%
OT
59.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:46 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 15:50 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |