Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.4%). Lindholm wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 52.6%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 53.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.4%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
55.4% (826)
-1.0%
Power Play
62.2% (164)
57.9% (221)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (83)
50.4% (129)
-1.0%
On power play, Lindholm has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Lindholm shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (541)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.7% (428)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Lindholm
O'Reilly
P1
54.8%
57.7%
P2
55.7%
54.8%
P3
55.6%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |