Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.2% vs 55.7%). Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lindholm wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.9% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 63.9%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 64.6%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 50.3%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
5
(17 meetings)
12
5
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lindholm 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lindholm
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
5
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
5
2
Lindholm
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (937)
56.2% (983)
-1.3%
Power Play
60.4% (265)
55.5% (254)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (172)
52.0% (102)
-2.6%
On power play, Lindholm has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lindholm is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,115).
Lindholm shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Home
54.4% (688)
56.2% (697)
Away
56.1% (686)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Lindholm
O'Reilly
P1
57.2%
54.5%
P2
54.3%
55.5%
P3
54.2%
57.1%
OT
54.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 06:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |