Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pettersson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 44.8% vs Duchene 52.1% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 56.7%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 87.4%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 63.0%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Pettersson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Pettersson
Duchene
Last 6: Pettersson 2-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Pettersson
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pettersson
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pettersson
1
0
Pettersson
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (912)
53.9% (193)
-9.8%
Power Play
61.5% (39)
49.2% (65)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
34.8% (46)
100.0% (1)
-65.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +65.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pettersson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Pettersson shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Duchene
Home
45.0% (489)
54.9% (113)
Away
43.7% (508)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Pettersson
Duchene
P1
46.0%
54.9%
P2
45.7%
52.7%
P3
42.2%
51.9%
OT
23.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▲
41.5%
44.3%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 05:16 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 21, 2023 | OT | 00:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |