Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Pettersson wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs Duchene 51.6% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.4%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 52.4%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 53.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Pettersson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pettersson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pettersson
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (790)
51.2% (324)
-5.3%
Power Play
55.4% (242)
60.4% (53)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (107)
16.7% (6)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Pettersson has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pettersson is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (730).
Pettersson shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Duchene
Home
49.3% (584)
51.6% (182)
Away
44.5% (555)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Pettersson
Duchene
P1
45.8%
49.6%
P2
47.9%
56.2%
P3
47.1%
48.6%
OT
47.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |