Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pettersson wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.7% vs Duchene 52.1% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 65.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 62.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Pettersson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Pettersson
Duchene
Last 6: Pettersson 4-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pettersson
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
1
0
Pettersson
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pettersson
2
1
Pettersson
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (790)
53.0% (723)
-6.7%
Power Play
53.1% (147)
49.5% (101)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (27)
43.8% (16)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Pettersson has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pettersson is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Pettersson shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Duchene
Home
48.1% (489)
54.9% (408)
Away
46.9% (475)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Pettersson
Duchene
P1
47.4%
52.5%
P2
48.3%
51.7%
P3
46.6%
53.6%
OT
55.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:18 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:29 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:51 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:42 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |