Elias Pettersson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.6%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 60.2%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 54.4%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
13
(25 meetings)
12
13
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Pettersson 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
6
Pettersson
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
5
1
Pettersson
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
6
Pettersson
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (790)
50.0% (992)
-4.1%
Power Play
55.4% (242)
64.9% (148)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (107)
34.4% (32)
+1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pettersson is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (408).
Pettersson shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Home
49.3% (584)
53.3% (591)
Away
44.5% (555)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Pettersson
MacKinnon
P1
45.8%
49.9%
P2
47.9%
53.2%
P3
47.1%
50.8%
OT
47.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |