Elias Pettersson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 46.2% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 56.0%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 64.0%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 56.7%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
13
(25 meetings)
12
13
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Pettersson 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
6
Pettersson
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
5
1
Pettersson
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
6
Pettersson
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (630)
49.1% (825)
-5.3%
Power Play
56.3% (215)
65.4% (130)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (103)
34.5% (29)
+1.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pettersson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Pettersson shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
Home / Away
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Home
48.3% (453)
52.6% (489)
Away
43.4% (495)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Pettersson
MacKinnon
P1
44.7%
50.3%
P2
46.0%
52.6%
P3
46.4%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
44.3%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▲
41.5%
45.8%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |