Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pettersson wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 76.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Pettersson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pettersson
Hertl
Last 8: Pettersson 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Pettersson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
3
1
Pettersson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pettersson
2
1
Pettersson
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (790)
54.1% (717)
-7.8%
Power Play
53.1% (147)
61.9% (210)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (27)
58.1% (31)
-6.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pettersson is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Pettersson shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Hertl
Home
48.1% (489)
58.1% (492)
Away
46.9% (475)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Pettersson
Hertl
P1
47.4%
57.1%
P2
48.3%
54.0%
P3
46.6%
56.6%
OT
55.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:51 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |