Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.9% vs Paul 50.4% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 78.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 73.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 56.3%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Rodrigues
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Rodrigues
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Rodrigues
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (318)
53.0% (644)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.4% (42)
37.5% (24)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
42.9% (177)
-0.6%
On power play, Rodrigues has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Rodrigues shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Paul
Home
49.8% (215)
52.5% (516)
Away
44.4% (171)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Rodrigues
Paul
P1
44.2%
47.6%
P2
53.5%
48.4%
P3
44.6%
54.5%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |