Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Paul 52.2% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Rodrigues leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 65.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 85.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 77.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 75.2%
24.8%
75.2%
Rodrigues
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Rodrigues
Paul
Last 10: Rodrigues 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
5
3
Rodrigues
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Rodrigues
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
2
Rodrigues
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
52.5% (3,796)
-6.3%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
56.5% (480)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
46.7% (574)
-3.8%
On power play, Paul has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Paul
Home
47.1% (1,820)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Rodrigues
Paul
P1
46.9%
53.9%
P2
46.1%
51.0%
P3
44.6%
52.0%
OT
48.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:26 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 16:50 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |