Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 50.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 74.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 83.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Rodrigues
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Rodrigues
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Rodrigues
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (41)
60.6% (708)
-9.4%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
61.1% (18)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
56.4% (101)
-6.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (47).
Rodrigues shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Sturm
Home
45.8% (24)
61.6% (451)
Away
52.9% (34)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Rodrigues
Sturm
P1
38.1%
55.9%
P2
52.6%
58.9%
P3
61.1%
64.6%
Final 5 min
33.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
50.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |