Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Sturm 53.6% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 50.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 88.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Rodrigues
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Rodrigues
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
54.6% (271)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
54.4% (90)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Rodrigues shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Sturm
Home
48.3% (429)
53.0% (168)
Away
45.4% (346)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Rodrigues
Sturm
P1
48.3%
58.2%
P2
46.9%
53.2%
P3
45.6%
52.3%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |