Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Sturm 56.1% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 80.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 65.1%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 65.9%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Rodrigues
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Rodrigues
Sturm
Last 10: Rodrigues 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
1
Rodrigues
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
6
Rodrigues
Sturm
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
57.1% (2,719)
-10.9%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
61.3% (62)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
51.0% (498)
-8.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Sturm
Home
47.1% (1,820)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Rodrigues
Sturm
P1
46.9%
56.5%
P2
46.1%
54.9%
P3
44.6%
57.4%
OT
48.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 01:16 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 06:53 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |