Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Malkin 48.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 70.7%
Defensive zone
Malkin 52.0%
Neutral zone
Mercer 50.9%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Mercer
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Mercer
Malkin
Last 7: Mercer 4-3 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
1
Mercer
Malkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Malkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
47.9% (776)
-4.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
66.7% (24)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
100.0% (1)
-30.0%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Malkin is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Mercer
Malkin
Home
41.7% (120)
49.6% (405)
Away
47.6% (145)
47.5% (396)
By Period
Mercer
Malkin
P1
44.6%
49.6%
P2
45.4%
47.2%
P3
45.2%
48.5%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:40 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |