Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Tavares 57.7% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 80.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 67.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Malkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Malkin
Tavares
Last 7: Malkin 4-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
0
Malkin
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Malkin
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
57.7% (998)
-12.2%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
60.5% (271)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
56.4% (39)
+43.6%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +43.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Malkin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (431).
Malkin shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Malkin
Tavares
Home
47.5% (326)
59.7% (610)
Away
44.0% (307)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Malkin
Tavares
P1
49.3%
57.2%
P2
44.7%
58.5%
P3
42.3%
59.4%
OT
66.7%
46.7%
Final 5 min
49.5%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |