Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 32 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Tavares 54.4% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 68-51 in 119 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 79.0%
Defensive zone
Malkin 87.1%
Neutral zone
Malkin 85.9%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 83.6%
83.6%
16.4%
Malkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
68
(119 meetings)
51
68
Malkin
Tavares
Last 10: Malkin 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
24
21
Malkin
Tavares
45 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
8
24
Malkin
Tavares
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
19
23
Malkin
Tavares
42 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
54.0% (16,108)
-8.4%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
56.5% (4,283)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
50.6% (620)
-18.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Malkin
Tavares
Home
47.6% (5,395)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Malkin
Tavares
P1
45.9%
55.0%
P2
46.2%
54.1%
P3
45.2%
54.1%
OT
49.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 17:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 08:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 18:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |