Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Malkin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Tavares 57.2% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 59.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 52.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.6%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Malkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Malkin
Tavares
Last 7: Malkin 3-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
0
Malkin
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Malkin
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
58.0% (914)
-12.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
57.0% (235)
-22.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Malkin shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Malkin
Tavares
Home
50.4% (113)
57.8% (614)
Away
39.4% (132)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Malkin
Tavares
P1
47.7%
58.0%
P2
44.9%
56.9%
P3
40.0%
58.4%
OT
100.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
35.3%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 17:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |