Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Duchene 52.1% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 78.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 60.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Malkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Malkin
Duchene
Last 7: Malkin 4-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Malkin
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
2
Malkin
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
53.0% (723)
-7.5%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
49.5% (101)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.8% (16)
+56.2%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Malkin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (431).
Malkin shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Malkin
Duchene
Home
47.5% (326)
54.9% (408)
Away
44.0% (307)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Malkin
Duchene
P1
49.3%
52.5%
P2
44.7%
51.7%
P3
42.3%
53.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:00 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 03:11 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |