Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on neutral-zone draws (56% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Duchene 54.1% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 22-19 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 85.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 71.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Malkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
19
(41 meetings)
22
19
Malkin
Duchene
Last 10: Malkin 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
8
7
Malkin
Duchene
15 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Malkin
Duchene
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
10
8
Malkin
Duchene
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
53.9% (10,396)
-8.3%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
56.9% (1,665)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
49.1% (468)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Malkin
Duchene
Home
47.6% (5,395)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Malkin
Duchene
P1
45.9%
54.5%
P2
46.2%
54.5%
P3
45.2%
53.4%
OT
49.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
46.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:00 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 03:11 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 16:03 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 05:45 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 13:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:25 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 10:13 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 04:38 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |