Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Malkin wins 38.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.0% vs Dowd 53.3% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 97.1%
Defensive zone
Malkin 67.3%
Neutral zone
Malkin 85.5%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Malkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Malkin
Dowd
Last 9: Malkin 1-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Malkin
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Malkin
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (366)
55.4% (771)
-11.4%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
57.1% (7)
-27.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Malkin is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (128).
Malkin shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Malkin
Dowd
Home
45.5% (202)
58.2% (462)
Away
41.4% (174)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Malkin
Dowd
P1
48.4%
55.6%
P2
41.7%
50.5%
P3
40.4%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
42.7%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
43.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 16:13 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |