Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (96% H2H, 26 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 40-16 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 94.4%
Defensive zone
Malkin 85.5%
Neutral zone
Malkin 88.9%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Malkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
40
(56 meetings)
16
40
Malkin
Dowd
Last 10: Malkin 1-9 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
13
3
Malkin
Dowd
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
25
Malkin
Dowd
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
12
Malkin
Dowd
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
52.4% (6,009)
-6.8%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
56.1% (164)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
44.1% (1,635)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Malkin
Dowd
Home
47.6% (5,395)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Malkin
Dowd
P1
45.9%
51.7%
P2
46.2%
50.4%
P3
45.2%
50.3%
OT
49.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
46.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 06:00 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 06:35 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 2 | 15:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |