Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Malkin wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 49.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 93.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.2%
Neutral zone
Malkin 53.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Malkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Malkin
Dowd
Last 8: Malkin 2-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
0
Malkin
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Malkin
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Malkin
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (811)
55.2% (625)
-6.2%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
57.1% (7)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
38.2% (220)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Malkin is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Malkin shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Malkin
Dowd
Home
52.3% (438)
53.7% (445)
Away
46.2% (418)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Malkin
Dowd
P1
51.3%
48.8%
P2
50.8%
49.3%
P3
45.0%
54.0%
OT
0.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
49.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 2 | 15:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |