Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 30-22 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 77.8%
Defensive zone
Malkin 79.7%
Neutral zone
Malkin 83.0%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Malkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
30
(52 meetings)
22
30
Malkin
Hertl
Last 10: Malkin 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
9
7
Malkin
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
13
Malkin
Hertl
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
10
10
Malkin
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
53.8% (8,268)
-8.2%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
59.3% (1,975)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
46.3% (806)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Malkin
Hertl
Home
47.6% (5,395)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Malkin
Hertl
P1
45.9%
53.6%
P2
46.2%
54.1%
P3
45.2%
55.3%
OT
49.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:03 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |