Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 56.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Malkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Malkin
Hertl
Last 6: Malkin 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Malkin
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
1
Malkin
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
54.1% (717)
-8.6%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
61.9% (210)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
58.1% (31)
+41.9%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Malkin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (431).
Malkin shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Malkin
Hertl
Home
47.5% (326)
58.1% (492)
Away
44.0% (307)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Malkin
Hertl
P1
49.3%
57.1%
P2
44.7%
54.0%
P3
42.3%
56.6%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |