Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 48.7% vs Hertl 56.8% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 74.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 73.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.1%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Malkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Malkin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Malkin
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (776)
57.0% (718)
-9.1%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
64.9% (188)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.2% (77)
+55.8%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +55.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Malkin is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Malkin shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Malkin
Hertl
Home
49.6% (405)
59.2% (463)
Away
47.5% (396)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Malkin
Hertl
P1
49.6%
56.3%
P2
47.2%
55.4%
P3
48.5%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
48.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |