Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Malkin wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.0% vs Hertl 52.3% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 82.1%
Defensive zone
Malkin 70.5%
Neutral zone
Malkin 74.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Malkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Malkin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Malkin
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Malkin
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Malkin
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (366)
51.6% (1,084)
-7.6%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
61.0% (246)
-31.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +31.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Malkin is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Malkin shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Malkin
Hertl
Home
45.5% (202)
55.2% (696)
Away
41.4% (174)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Malkin
Hertl
P1
48.4%
55.4%
P2
41.7%
54.8%
P3
40.4%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.7%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
43.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |