Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 42.9% vs Hertl 54.9% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 72.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 74.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Malkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Malkin
Hertl
Last 10: Malkin 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
0
Malkin
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Malkin
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Malkin
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (722)
55.0% (382)
-12.5%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
59.7% (67)
-24.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
75.0% (8)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Malkin is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (508).
Malkin shoots left. Hertl is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Malkin
Hertl
Home
43.3% (406)
58.8% (221)
Away
40.4% (349)
53.4% (236)
By Period
Malkin
Hertl
P1
39.3%
52.6%
P2
43.1%
53.6%
P3
43.8%
62.4%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
38.2%
61.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
42.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2015 | 3 | 15:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 2 | 00:02 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 05:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 19:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |